...this is the Conpernicum Principle - there is nothing special about the time you arrive at a phenomenon.
So, given that the human race has been around for 200,000 years, the chances are I have arrived at the mid 95% of the range of the human species and hence the human race has at 95% chance it’ll last AT LEAST another 5,100 years and NOT LONGER than 7.8 Million years.
on average mammal species last 2 million years...
- bad Paraphrasing of J. Richard Gott
Hmm
ReplyDeletealthough is that faulty logic because let's say you meet up with your friend, who's loading a gun and putting it to his head
you might say "the chances are he will continue for somewhere between 20 and 40 years more, certainly no more than 60"
but he's still about to shoot himself